Monday, May 10, 2010

Inside-Out Sports Classic Half Marathon - Race Plan

This weekend's Half Marathon (Inside-Out Sports Classic Half Marathon) is the final race in the Second Empire Grand Prix Series and I find myself in an unusual situation.

The Second Empire Series has 8 races (6 x 5K, 1 x 10K and 1 x Half Marathon) and points are awarded based on time versus the time of the race winner. The winner of a race receives 1000 points, and other runners times are calculated by dividing the winning time by the runners time. For example:
Winner 15:00 (900 seconds)
Runner X 20:00 (1200 seconds)
=======================
(900/1200) * 100 = 750 points

Only the best six points scores for each runner count in the final calculation in which points are added up.

I currently sit 4th in my age group and 20th overall. Prizes/Gifts are awarded to the top 5 overall and then the top 3 in each age group. I am currently 7 points behind the 3rd place person in my age group.

Runner X: 717 737 727 653 708 - 684 (4226)
Me: 681 709 724 667 - 745 693 (4219)

The runner that is currently first in my age group is leading the overall competition and although he may get knocked down to 2nd or 3rd overall in this coming race, he won't drop out of the top 5. This means he won't count in my age group, and I will jump up to 3rd in the final standings regardless of my points from the coming race and the results of any other runners as nobody can catch me in my age group.

Runner X started the year well but I have beaten him in my last two races, including the 10K where I beat him by a full minute and I have no idea whether he will even run the Half Marathon.

I can improve my total by 8 points if I can get 675 points (which will improve my lowest total of 667 by 8) in the Half Marathon. Of course, I have no control at all over what the winning time will be and as this is the first time the Half Marathon has been in the Second Empire Series, the results from previous years are no help at all.

However, I like to know what my chances are... so I did some calculations:
Winning Time | Required Time to get at least 675 points
1:05 | 1:36
1:07 | 1:39
1:09 | 1:42
1:10 | 1:43:30
1:11 | 1:45
1:13 | 1:48
1:15 | 1:51
1:17 | 1:54

After running the majority of the course yesterday, I know it is a tough course with a number of hills, some of which are huge, which means I really can't see anyone running faster than 1:10. If the winner ran 1:10:00, I'd need to run 1:43:30 to gain 675 points, which would be tough, but not unachievable.

This is going to be my last competitive race of the spring, so I can go out hard and push... I think I am going to set my watch for 7:55/mile, which will get me to around 1:43:30. I have nothing to lose, but potentially I could gain a place in the overall standings.

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